Near-source ground motion estimation for assessing the seismic hazard of critical facilities in central Italy

Abstract We apply the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and compute Physics-Based Simulations (PBS) of ground motion for three dams in Campotosto area (Central Italy). The dams, which confine an artificial water reservoir feeding hydroelectric power plants, are located active seismic zone between areas that experienced 2009 L’Aquila 2016–2017 Central Italy sequences. probabilistic disaggregation estimated a return period 2475 years, corresponding to collapse limit state critical facilities, indicates most dangerous fault is associated with maximum magnitude 6.75 ± 0.25 within distance 10 km. This used PBS emulate Maximum Credible Earthquake scenario. To capture variability, we input pseudo-dynamic source model encompass spatial temporal variations slip, rise time rupture propagation, heavily affecting near-source motion. Indeed, above volume mainly influenced by epistemic uncertainties nucleation slip distribution. computed broadband seismograms consistent shaking recorded during 2016 M W 6.6 Norcia earthquake constrain upper bound simulated at specific sites. Our modelling reinforces importance considering vertical near design. It could reach values comparable or larger than those horizontal components. approach can be applied other high hazard evaluate safety existing facilities.